Winning Strategy and Information for Daily Draft Fantasy Sports Players
Fantasy Basketball Betting Articles
Putting the Best Lineup on the Floor - Strategy Considerations (February 17, 2008)
Betting on Fantasy Basketball requires a well thought out handicapping strategy each night. Many bettors just look at the draft board and randomly pick players that they recognize or select last nights hot performers. While easy, that approach won't consistently get the money. You need a plan. Most draft plans should fall into two categories. Let's call them the Studs and Duds strategy and the Average Joes strategy.
The Average Joes strategy is simply selecting a roster of average performing players. None of them will likely outperform, but they are fairly dependable on most nights to put up at least their salary worth of fantasy points. For example, if you have a cap of 200 points, you select 7 players in the $28 range. The problem with the plan is that your team is still an average team made up of average players and while it may win in a heads up match, it probably won't get the money in a 6 or 10 team tourney. Also, out of 7 starters, one or two can be expected to have an off night. It's just the "law of average players". The strategy does shine though when you can pinpoint 7 strong matchups, however it is often difficult to find that many matchups on any given NBA night.
An alternate plan is the Studs and Duds strategy. I've been using this one more and more lately and like it better than the Average Joes plan. It requires a little more work, but is definitely worth it. For the same 7 player 200 point cap game you construct your roster with 5 studs and 2 duds. Everyone can find the studs, the real trick is to find the right "duds". For example, if you take Nowitzki (35) Ming (35) Pierce (31) Kobe (40) and Artest (31), you have $28 left to fill your roster with a guard and a forward. Your five studs are going to put up good numbers, they always do, which is why they are priced as they are. Now, you have to scour the schedule looking for two $14 range players who may be running hot, filling in for an injured starter or who have great matchups. I call these Tier Four players and try to put up a couple everyday on the draft board on the Fantasy Sports Handicapping Basketball homepage.
For example, for awhile I was using the above roster and filling it with A. Blatch at $14 (Blatche was filling in for Caron Butler and getting good minutes) and Roger Mason at $11 (Mason was filling in for Arenas/Daniels). On a couple of days my studs produced, while Blatche and Mason both put up 20+FP, easily exceeding what I paid for them. The games were easy winners and the same team also took down several 10 team tourneys. Be aware though that the Studs and Duds approach has more risk than the Average Joes plan. If your duds really do turn out to be duds, you can be sunk in all your games. It has more upside, but just like everything with more upside, it has more risk.
If you are going to bet real money on daily fantasy sports games, have a handicapping plan. Have several handicapping plans. It is a skill game and the players with the most skill and strategy will get the money. Be one of those players.
Betting on Fantasy Basketball requires a well thought out handicapping strategy each night. Many bettors just look at the draft board and randomly pick players that they recognize or select last nights hot performers. While easy, that approach won't consistently get the money. You need a plan. Most draft plans should fall into two categories. Let's call them the Studs and Duds strategy and the Average Joes strategy.
The Average Joes strategy is simply selecting a roster of average performing players. None of them will likely outperform, but they are fairly dependable on most nights to put up at least their salary worth of fantasy points. For example, if you have a cap of 200 points, you select 7 players in the $28 range. The problem with the plan is that your team is still an average team made up of average players and while it may win in a heads up match, it probably won't get the money in a 6 or 10 team tourney. Also, out of 7 starters, one or two can be expected to have an off night. It's just the "law of average players". The strategy does shine though when you can pinpoint 7 strong matchups, however it is often difficult to find that many matchups on any given NBA night.
An alternate plan is the Studs and Duds strategy. I've been using this one more and more lately and like it better than the Average Joes plan. It requires a little more work, but is definitely worth it. For the same 7 player 200 point cap game you construct your roster with 5 studs and 2 duds. Everyone can find the studs, the real trick is to find the right "duds". For example, if you take Nowitzki (35) Ming (35) Pierce (31) Kobe (40) and Artest (31), you have $28 left to fill your roster with a guard and a forward. Your five studs are going to put up good numbers, they always do, which is why they are priced as they are. Now, you have to scour the schedule looking for two $14 range players who may be running hot, filling in for an injured starter or who have great matchups. I call these Tier Four players and try to put up a couple everyday on the draft board on the Fantasy Sports Handicapping Basketball homepage.
For example, for awhile I was using the above roster and filling it with A. Blatch at $14 (Blatche was filling in for Caron Butler and getting good minutes) and Roger Mason at $11 (Mason was filling in for Arenas/Daniels). On a couple of days my studs produced, while Blatche and Mason both put up 20+FP, easily exceeding what I paid for them. The games were easy winners and the same team also took down several 10 team tourneys. Be aware though that the Studs and Duds approach has more risk than the Average Joes plan. If your duds really do turn out to be duds, you can be sunk in all your games. It has more upside, but just like everything with more upside, it has more risk.
If you are going to bet real money on daily fantasy sports games, have a handicapping plan. Have several handicapping plans. It is a skill game and the players with the most skill and strategy will get the money. Be one of those players.
Using Sportsbook Betting Lines for Fantasy Contests (February 21, 2008)
Betting on daily fantasy sports requires knowledge of the individual players, but it also requires a general idea of the overall team matchups. I see many people drafting without giving any thought at all to overall game matchups and they are just giving away one of their greatest edges. The most simple information on game matchups is free, quick and available to all, but I doubt many have considered using it. That information is the sportsbook line and odds. Covers.com is one of my favorite sports betting sites and they provide live lines and odds for almost any sport you want to know about.
With a quick glance at the totals line, you can pick out the high scoring games and target players in that game. If the totals line is low, it might be best to avoid certain players in that game. You can also use the point spread for fantasy sports decisions. Sometimes a team is such a large favorite, that a blowout is pretty much a certainty. If you start a player for the line favorite team, be aware that your draft pick can end up on the bench for most of the fourth quarter once the rout is on. While this doesn't affect the overall game result, it can definitely make or break a fantasy contest.
The sportsbook's line and odds information is free, use it to get every edge you can.
Betting on daily fantasy sports requires knowledge of the individual players, but it also requires a general idea of the overall team matchups. I see many people drafting without giving any thought at all to overall game matchups and they are just giving away one of their greatest edges. The most simple information on game matchups is free, quick and available to all, but I doubt many have considered using it. That information is the sportsbook line and odds. Covers.com is one of my favorite sports betting sites and they provide live lines and odds for almost any sport you want to know about.
With a quick glance at the totals line, you can pick out the high scoring games and target players in that game. If the totals line is low, it might be best to avoid certain players in that game. You can also use the point spread for fantasy sports decisions. Sometimes a team is such a large favorite, that a blowout is pretty much a certainty. If you start a player for the line favorite team, be aware that your draft pick can end up on the bench for most of the fourth quarter once the rout is on. While this doesn't affect the overall game result, it can definitely make or break a fantasy contest.
The sportsbook's line and odds information is free, use it to get every edge you can.